Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Supported by

ESs and Credible Intervals for One vs Two Sided Bayesian t-Tests

Dear colleagues.

I’m looking for a bit of advice on reporting ES delta and its 95% credible interval in the context of a one-sided Bayesian t-test computed in JASP.

The figure below is the posterior distribution of ES delta under a default one sided prior distribution. A one sided prior was used as the relevant hypothesis was theoretically derived and directional.The BF is non-diagnostic. This is fine (as they say, data don't care what your hypotheses are), and not the issue that I'm concerned about. The median of the posterior distribution is .17, and its 95% credible interval grazes zero (but can’t extend below it).

Should I report the above ES and the corresponding credible interval?

Or should I re-run the analyses with a two sided prior (see below), ignore the BF, but report ES delta = .10, 95% Credible Interval [-.27, .47]? If so, how should I explain this in the manuscript?

The latter (report and interpret the one sided BF followed by two sided ES and credible interval) appears to be the approach that Wagenmakers et al. (2016) have taken here, in a context which is pretty similar to the one that I am in currently: https://frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00494/full. However, this seems inconsistent to me for reasons I can’t articulate. Is anyone able to explain to me why this is the sensible thing to do (or not)?

Thanks in advance for any and all advice received. I’m quite new to this Bayesian business, and still very much a novice. Peter Allen

Comments

  • Dear Peter,

    Sorry for the tardy reply. Let me explain my reasoning. In early work, we would specify a directional hypothesis and use that both for BFs and for effect sizes. This is consistent and sensible. So why have we started to use a two-sided prior for ES? There are several reasons but one of them is that for a one-sided ES people might say: "ah, the effect is small but the central 95% interval does not overlap with zero". Of course this has to happen because of the restriction, but this is what people will quickly forget. So for ES we use the two-sided analysis (which is also similar to the classical way of doing things) but for the BF, which depends on predictive adequacy, we do respect the directional nature of the prior. But I completely accept that there are different ways of doing this.

    Cheers,
    E.J.

  • Hi E.J. No problem at all! Now that I've had time to think about it, your approach does make a lot of sense, and it is one that I will be adopting in my research. Thanks again. Peter Allen

Sign In or Register to comment.

agen judi bola , sportbook, casino, togel, number game, singapore, tangkas, basket, slot, poker, dominoqq, agen bola. Semua permainan bisa dimainkan hanya dengan 1 ID. minimal deposit 50.000 ,- bonus cashback hingga 10% , diskon togel hingga 66% bisa bermain di android dan IOS kapanpun dan dimana pun. poker , bandarq , aduq, domino qq , dominobet. Semua permainan bisa dimainkan hanya dengan 1 ID. minimal deposit 10.000 ,- bonus turnover 0.5% dan bonus referral 20%. Bonus - bonus yang dihadirkan bisa terbilang cukup tinggi dan memuaskan, anda hanya perlu memasang pada situs yang memberikan bursa pasaran terbaik yaitu http://45.77.173.118/ Bola168. Situs penyedia segala jenis permainan poker online kini semakin banyak ditemukan di Internet, salah satunya TahunQQ merupakan situs Agen Judi Domino66 Dan BandarQ Terpercaya yang mampu memberikan banyak provit bagi bettornya. Permainan Yang Di Sediakan Dewi365 Juga sangat banyak Dan menarik dan Peluang untuk memenangkan Taruhan Judi online ini juga sangat mudah . Mainkan Segera Taruhan Sportbook anda bersama Agen Judi Bola Bersama Dewi365 Kemenangan Anda Berapa pun akan Terbayarkan. Tersedia 9 macam permainan seru yang bisa kamu mainkan hanya di dalam 1 ID saja. Permainan seru yang tersedia seperti Poker, Domino QQ Dan juga BandarQ Online. Semuanya tersedia lengkap hanya di ABGQQ. Situs ABGQQ sangat mudah dimenangkan, kamu juga akan mendapatkan mega bonus dan setiap pemain berhak mendapatkan cashback mingguan. ABGQQ juga telah diakui sebagai Bandar Domino Online yang menjamin sistem FAIR PLAY disetiap permainan yang bisa dimainkan dengan deposit minimal hanya Rp.25.000. DEWI365 adalah Bandar Judi Bola Terpercaya & resmi dan terpercaya di indonesia. Situs judi bola ini menyediakan fasilitas bagi anda untuk dapat bermain memainkan permainan judi bola. Didalam situs ini memiliki berbagai permainan taruhan bola terlengkap seperti Sbobet, yang membuat DEWI365 menjadi situs judi bola terbaik dan terpercaya di Indonesia. Tentunya sebagai situs yang bertugas sebagai Bandar Poker Online pastinya akan berusaha untuk menjaga semua informasi dan keamanan yang terdapat di POKERQQ13. Kotakqq adalah situs Judi Poker Online Terpercayayang menyediakan 9 jenis permainan sakong online, dominoqq, domino99, bandarq, bandar ceme, aduq, poker online, bandar poker, balak66, perang baccarat, dan capsa susun. Dengan minimal deposit withdraw 15.000 Anda sudah bisa memainkan semua permaina pkv games di situs kami. Jackpot besar,Win rate tinggi, Fair play, PKV Games