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Bayesian t-test - same data different BF10 each time

I was working with the Stereograms t-test data set with Mann-Whitney while reading the reporting guidelines preprint. While I was flipping between different hypotheses when I returned to Group1>Group 2 I get a completely different BF10 while all the other factors remain the same. Mann Whitney W stays at 973, credible intervals are always the same but BF10 has varied between 10.44 and 5.7. (See attached screenshots).
Any idea why?



  • Hi Mark,

    Thanks for sharing this. The underlying algorithm introduces some degree of variation (there is Gibbs sampling both for dealing with rank data and for sampling from the delta posterior distribution). I have just implemented some more stability and clarification about the Bayesian Mann-Whitney test - now it includes a footnote about the algorithm, it runs multiple chains and bases the Bayes factor off that (I might also implement the user specifying that number themselves), and the R-hat statistic (i.e., Gelman-Rubin diagnostic) that measures convergence of the mcmc-chains.
    This variation is especially prevalent when there is either low sample size, or low number of mcmc-samples. For now, maybe it helps to increase that number to the maximum. The updated code will be in JASP 0.9.3, in any case!

    Kind regards

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