BF and Cred.Interval seem to conflict ?
OK all, n00b question again (but don't worry, I'm a fast learner, especially with some help from you all. And yes, I did try, very hard, to solve it myself)
QUESTION 1: HOW SHOULD I UNDERSTAND THE CREDIBLE REGION NUMBERS?
My data is a range of scores (0 ... 10), called "rapportcijfer".
Std. Deviation 1.535
I now want to do a Bayesian one sample t-test. Question: is the population mean > 6.4 ? In frequentist stats this would be:
H0: score =< 6.4
H1: score > 6.4
OK, let's do the Bayesian test. These are the JASP-results: [IMG]http://img.cogsci.nl/uploads/56e031605b471.jpg[/IMG]
Test: > 6.4
95% CI: 0.015 .. 0.27
OK, BF10 is 0.63, which means that these data are less likely under H1 than under H0. Right? BF01 is 1.58, which means that these data are 1.58 times more likely under H0.
The 95% Credible Interval is 0.015 ....0.27. I read this as: the value is between (6.4 + 0.015) and (6.4 + 0.27) = 6.415 ...6.67
Or should I read this as: Cred. Int. = (sample mean + 0.015) ... (sample mean + 0.27) ??
QUESTION 2: WHAT IS THE H0 and H1 BEING TESTED?
The Bayes Factor compares the probability of data under two hypotheses. Where (in JASP) can I see these hypotheses being made explicit?
QUESTION 3: CONFLICTING BF AND CREDIBLE REGION NUMBERS?
- The Bayes Factor suggests that the data are less likely under (some?) H1, with a mean > 6.4
- the CI ranges from 6.415 ... 6.67
This does not go well together.
Please tell me what is wrong in my interpretations. THANKS AGAIN !