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Bayes ANOVA - Any chance to adjust prior probabilities?

Dear E.J.,

finally I analysed my own data for a study, that I'm supposed to replicate. Remeber the orignal effect was really huge (p< .001, ηp^2 = .136; BF10 =800000...)?

Now, in the replication data, the ANOVA shows no evidence for anything: p = .075, np^2 =.057; BF01=1.66 with a power of 60% (N=122).

Now, what would be a sensible answer to the question, whether the replication was successful? On the first glance, the previously set criteria (significant p value; CI of Eta to include original effect size) were not met. But what if I took into account the huge effect that showed in the original study and altered the prior probability of H1 accordingly? Actually, everybody expected the effect to replicate with a 90% probability. Is there any way to do that with JASP?

Thanks so much,



  • Hi Flaihai,

    If you are interested in accounting for knowledge gained in the first study, you can use a replication Bayes factor (for a simple application you can read DOI:10.3758/s13428-018-1092-x), assuming this is a direct / exact replication.

    Good luck!

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